Trade of the Day

Below is a 4H chart for EURUSD.



Usually I wait for price to breakout of the ranges indicated by the green and red levels. In particular, for EURUSD I would wait for a break short through the red level. However, The innediate price action was bullish, and this was supported by divergence on the chart. So I decided to take the bounce from the support level and look for opportunities to go long. Short time frame tick charts gave me the chance for a pullback as shown below:



Entry worked perfectly at the 61.8% retracement level giving me an entry price of 1.3187 with a stop of 22 pips. I scaled-out at 1.3198 giving me a breakeven trade. However, price failed to make a new high. But what was forming was a breakout trade setup. Here it is on a 15 minute chart:



Since I was already at breakeven I was able to trade the breakout without increasing my overall risk exposure. The breakout was spectacular!

Sunil Is Coming To Town

Before trading I had been interested in technical analysis for many years. Sunil helped me make the transition from analyst to trader by showing me how to create specific trade setups based on technical analytics. In particular, he helped me trade negative divergence effectively, and introduced me to the camelback setup and harmonic patterns such as the gartley and butterfly. At the time, Sunil was working at fxinstructor.com.

Sunil is a regular contributor at fxstreet.com as well as running his own trading website: fibforex123.com.

Sunil is running a workshop in London on 26-27 April. Full details are here.

Currency Correlations

The table below shows the level of correlation between various currency pairs.



A correlation is similar to an average calculation, and is determined over a period of time. The table was calculated from daily data from year 2000 to 2008. It therefore only reflects the general average level of correlation. It's important to realise that correlations evolve over time, and in just the same way that an average price can be represented as a moving average, so too, a correlation can be represented as a moving correlation. The chart below illustrates 60-day moving correlations for 3 currency pairs, and shows how drammatic changes in correlation can quickly develop.

Recent Trades

Pivot Bar Trade

It's not often I trade pivot bars, but this trade worked well for me today. The pivot bar is indicated by the green arrow on the chart, with the blue line representing my exit point. Entry was one pip about the high of the pivot bar, with a stop one pip below.