News Events for the Week

Well of course it's the 1st week of the month, so the biggie is the Non Farm Payroll announcement on Friday at 13:30 BST. No matter what instrument you follow (FTSE, DOW, EURUSD) prices are at a critical level and on the verge of a new trend. The consensus expectation is for the unemployment levels to increase by 345k. This would be the smallest increase for almost a year, and compares to 467k for last month. A figure lower than this may tilt the balance and cause the dollar to breakout lower, whereas a significantly higher figure may bring a return to dollar strength with more risk-averse trading.

Thursday brings interest rate decisions for the Bank of England at mid-day and from the European Central Bank at 12:45. The expectation is for the BOE rate to remain at 0.50% and the ECB rate to remain at 1.0%. These announcements should be non-events if the consensus prevails, though there may be reaction to the small print regarding BOE's bond purchasing scheme (printing money, quantitative easing, whatever-you-want-to-call-it).

Tuesday brings the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision at 5:30 BST. The AUD has been strong recently and is at historically significant levels. Current interest rates are at 3.0% and expected to remain unchanged. As with the BOE, the commentary is likely to be more significant, especially if there are clues to a potential increase in rates within a specified timeframe.