Friday 2 October 2009

EURJPY Gartley Outcome

Hot on the heals from the Gartley for GBPCHF, here is the outcome for the 2nd Gartley pattern that I identified, this time on EURJPY.



The pattern successfully identified the entry level (green line segment) and the target price (light blue line segment). Just to be very clear, this is not a retrospective analysis. The levels were identified on an earlier post whilst price was still moving upwards.

The final impulse move downwards is attributable to the Non Farm Payroll announcements at 13:30 (UK time) that delivered worse than expected results (although maybe not so surprising).

So now I'm getting quite excited by geometry!

More of a geometric challenge for me was the EURUSD posting from yesterday. The wedge geometry identifies a bullish move to a target price level. My entry price for a trade was below the level a the time, and it looked like I had missed the chance of an elegant entry. But a poor NFP result was expected to push USD higher, which could have created a move totally contrary to the geometric "prediction". So was looking like either the move wasn't going to happen, or I had missed it. I was curious to see how the geometry would deal with a significant news event. I thought it would just break the pattern, but actually the outcome was a bullish impulse move preceded by a spike downwards - giving me both my entry and a push towards my target. WOW!

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