Friday 2 October 2009

EURUSD Wedge

In earlier posts I had been anticipating the breakout of EURUSD, then waiting for a subsequent pullback to make an entry; however, price didn't pullback to the levels that I was looking for. Recent commentaries that I have read for EURUSD are very bearish. Here is a contrarian view, based on the geometry of a bearish descending wedge formation.



Price has retraced to a confluence of 50.0% and 61.8% fibonacci levels. The last 2 lows appear just below a monthly pivot level, and are divergence against momentum indicators. Projections from the wedge formation anticipate that price could reach 1.4750 in Mid-October. I've indicated a potential entry level, based at the last low. However, its possible that this price won't be revisited and an alternative would be to scalp an entry on a smaller time frame somewhere close the the pivot level at 1.4545. Of course the NFP announcement tomorrow could cause a swing to the low side to trigger the entry. If the result of the NFP is further bearish movement, I still think there would be a possibility for entry at about 1.4450.

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